PLENUM 2026: Russian Hybrid Threats Call for Stronger European Defence and More Resilient Institutions
Europe must strengthen the development of its own defence capabilities, but without duplicating existing NATO mechanisms, as reliable collective defence requires updated military plans, the ability to respond rapidly and civilian resilience. At the same time, Russia is seeking to destabilise European societies, weaken support for Ukraine and deepen citizens’ distrust in institutions through sabotage, hybrid operations, propaganda and disinformation. The Western Balkans are particularly vulnerable to such influences, which is why stronger institutions, greater societal resilience and a coordinated security response are necessary, it was emphasised at the final thematic session „Evropa “Europe Between Russian Threats and Uncertain NATO Guarantees”, held as part of the regional conference PLENUM 2026, jointly organised by the Centre for Civic Education (CCE) from Podgorica, the Regional Academy for the Development of Democracy (ADD) from Novi Sad, the Faculty of Political Sciences of the University of Sarajevo (FPN) and the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB).
The discussion focused on growing security threats to Europe, including sabotage, attacks on critical infrastructure and hybrid operations, as well as the reliability of collective defence amid changing political relations within NATO. Particular attention was paid to strengthening European defence capabilities, supporting Ukraine and the consequences of security uncertainty for the Western Balkans.
Nikola Lunić, geopolitical and security analyst, assessed that Russia, in the context of the war in Ukraine, is seeking to destabilise other parts of the world in order to divert international attention and weaken support for Ukraine, as was also demonstrated during the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. He stressed that hybrid threats have become an integral part of the contemporary security environment, to which the Western Balkans are particularly exposed. He warned of the danger of sabotage, citing the explosions at the Sloboda factory in Čačak in 2021, the circumstances of which, according to him, have not been sufficiently clarified, as well as six cases of sabotage in the European military industry during this year. He recalled that NATO had recognised the seriousness of hybrid threats at its Washington summit, noting that they could reach a level that would justify invoking Article 5, the collective defence mechanism.
Speaking about Russian influence in Serbia, Lunić assessed that Moscow does not rely on a single political actor, but instead builds a broad network of influence. “Russia is not betting on a single horse in Serbia; it has bought the entire stable and the entire racecourse,” he said, linking such activities to the concepts of the so-called Serbian World, promoted by Aleksandar Vulin, and “Serbian integralism”, advocated by Milo Lompar. He also criticised the way security policy is formulated in Serbia, assessing that ministries had operated like separate fiefdoms, which, according to him, had enabled Vulin to incorporate cooperation with Russian services into strategic documents.
Reflecting on political changes in Serbia, he expressed his conviction that “the student movement recognises that the country’s future lies in the West and the EU”. He stressed that the elections were not a referendum on foreign policy or Kosovo, but on crime and the character of the previous government. “The horizontal structure of the student movement made attempts to undermine it more difficult, but now that it is taking power, it will also have to build a vertical structure,” Lunić stated, noting that the new government faces the tasks of stabilising the country and defining a serious national and security strategy.
Zoran Lazarević, Brigadier General and former Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Montenegro, spoke about Europe’s security dependence on the US, stressing that strengthening European defence must complement NATO rather than replace it. “The Donald Trump administration made the European Union realise that it must pay greater attention to its own security. When we talk about European security and defence, the EU will not allow the duplication of capabilities. Most EU member states are also NATO members, and NATO was entirely justified in identifying Russia as a threat. It would not be good for the EU to establish bodies that would make the same decisions and duplicate existing capabilities,” Lazarević said.
He expressed his conviction that the US would neither leave NATO nor abandon Europe to Russian threats. “Through my work, I have gained the impression that NATO has mechanisms for responding rapidly when security is threatened and that the EU will continue to make use of those capabilities that it lacks itself,” Lazarević stated.
Speaking about the reliability of allied guarantees, Lazarević stressed that updated, achievable military plans, aligned with assessments of security threats, are the foundation of effective collective defence. “NATO has achievable plans, and EU member states base their own plans on them. The most important thing is to prevent strategic surprise, and NATO and the EU are working on this 24 hours a day,” he said.
He also highlighted the importance of military mobility, namely adapting critical infrastructure to enable the rapid movement of allied forces across Europe. Although the EU has already adopted numerous documents and assessments, their implementation requires the removal of legal, administrative and infrastructure barriers. “The movement of military troops causes disruption to citizen’s lives, and civilian resilience is an issue addressed by the EU, but also by adversaries who seek to weaken it, which can also result in numerous casualties. The EU needs to make major decisions on legal coordination among member states to enable movement and allow the civilian sector to find its place and role. No member state wants to lose its sovereignty, and all of this needs to be achieved as quickly as possible,” Lazarević warned.
Nejra Veljan, Project Manager and Researcher at the Atlantic Initiative, pointed out that Russian propaganda cannot be viewed separately from citizen’s distrust in institutions, which creates fertile ground for disinformation and manipulation. She particularly highlighted the concept of cognitive warfare, whose aim is not necessarily to make citizens believe certain falsehoods, but to overwhelm them with information to the point where they lose the ability to distinguish reliable sources. “Russia is not trying so much to convince citizens that it is right as to persuade them that they cannot trust the West,” Veljan emphasised, explaining that propaganda increasingly relies on cultural and value-related issues.
According to research by the Atlantic Initiative, issues relating to the traditional family, the position of women and sexual minorities are particularly instrumentalised, portraying the West as a threat to tradition and Russia as its protector. Such narratives deliberately target citizens’ emotions, particularly in patriarchal societies. As an example, she cited the Russian propaganda network “Rybar”, also active in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro, whose activities, according to her, include not only producing propaganda content but also establishing links with institutions. Veljan expressed scepticism about the readiness of institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina to counter Russian influence, warning that some domestic politicians advocate positions aligned with Russian interests, while security services lack sufficient capacity to respond. “In the Balkans, we currently have more than 150 active networks on Telegram, including extremist and right-wing groups, as well as pro-Russian channels that disseminate content about NATO, Ukraine, the Western Balkans and gender issues,” Veljan stated. She warned that such content is flooding social media, which are the main source of information for young people, while similar patterns of information influence can also be identified in Germany through support for the AfD. She concluded that stronger social mobilisation of young people is still lacking in Bosnia and Herzegovina, unlike in some other countries in the region and Europe.
The panel was moderated by journalist Adnan Rondić.
PLENUM 2026 brought together more than 70 representatives of institutions, academia and civil society, as well as experts from Montenegro, the Western Balkan region and the European Union, providing a space for the exchange of different perspectives on the democratic and European future of the region.
