Two Decades Since the Restoration of Montenegrin Independence – Between State-Building Success, Unfinished Democratization, and the European Finale
Twenty years after the restoration of its independence, Montenegro has achieved significant state, security, and foreign policy successes, but it has not fully built functional institutions, the rule of law, and a democratic political culture. Therefore, European integration must not be reduced to the technical closing of negotiating chapters; rather, it must be a process of deep transformation of the state and society. This is one of the key conclusions of the analysis „Two Decades of Montenegro’s Restored Independence – Between Statehood Success, Incomplete Democratization, and the European Endgame“, published by the German Heinrich Böll Foundation (HBS). Its authors are Daliborka Uljarević, Executive Director of the Centre for Civic Education (CCE), and Balša Božović, Executive Director of the Regional Academy for Democratic Development (ADD), who are both members of the HBS Western Balkans Strategic Group.
The analysis notes that Montenegro, two decades after May 21, 2006, has preserved peace, consolidated its international standing, become a NATO member, and advanced further than any other country in the region in negotiations with the European Union. The independence referendum is evaluated as one of the most demanding and successfully implemented democratic and peaceful processes for resolving a statehood issue in a region marked by wars, ethnic divisions, and authoritarian legacies.
It is emphasized that the restoration of independence was not the product of a single political moment, but of a long process of social and political maturation, the strengthening of the anti-war and civic movements, the gradual expansion of the pro-sovereignty bloc, and the need for Montenegro to independently decide its future. The year 1997 is highlighted as a turning point—a political break from Slobodan Milošević’s policies and the Greater State nationalism of the 1990s, which initiated Montenegro’s essential state emancipation.
With 55.5% support for independence, the citizens of Montenegro dignifiedly and democratically chose a European future and the right to independently determine their political, security, and international position. At the same time, the referendum had a strong emancipatory and civic character, as it was based on the idea of Montenegro as a state of all its citizens, rather than a state of one nation, one party, or one identity.
“From a historical distance of two decades, it is clear that May 21 was much more than a decision on state status. It was a geostrategic and civilizational turning point through which Montenegro permanently reoriented itself toward the West, European integration, and a democratic model of development,” the authors state.
A special place in the analysis is given to Montenegro’s NATO membership in 2017, which is evaluated as the crowning achievement of its security and geopolitical repositioning, and a permanent institutional guarantee that its destiny as a state will no longer be decided outside of democratic institutions.
At the same time, the authors point out that the greatest deficit of the post-referendum period is the lack of deep democratic consolidation. Instead of depoliticizing the judiciary, public administration, education, and the security sector, a model of party control predominantly continued. This missed the opportunity for May 21 to become the beginning of the institutional emancipation of society, rather than just the confirmation of state independence.
The analysis highlights that preserving the civic model of the state is one of the most important achievements of post-referendum Montenegro. However, this very concept is under serious pressure today due to growing identity divisions, ethno-political bargaining, hate speech, revisionism, and attempts to relativize Montenegrin identity, its anti-fascist heritage, and the secular character of the state. “This is not just a question of identity or history, but of the character of the state and its long-term institutional survival,” the authors warn.
The political changes following the 2020 elections are recognized as democratically necessary, but also as the beginning of a new phase of political and social struggle over the identity, values, and geopolitical orientation of Montenegro. Special tensions were caused by the Fundamental Agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), the status of religious communities, and the 2023 population census, while the concept of the “Serbian World” is identified as a framework that contributes to weakening the civic model of the state.
“Political developments after 2020 thus reveal a dual reality: although the democratic change of government represented a necessary correction within Montenegro’s political system, it simultaneously exposed unresolved structural weaknesses and reopened debates that many believed were already concluded,” note Uljarević and Božović.
Despite these pressures, the results of the 2023 census show that the Montenegrin identity has remained stable and socially relevant. However, the analysis also warns that a significant part of the political and media structures in Serbia still do not accept Montenegro as a fully equal and sovereign state, seeking through various means to preserve political influence and weaken its European course.
“The paradox of modern Montenegro is reflected precisely in the fact that the state is formally moving closer to the EU, while simultaneously facing internal democratic regression and challenges to certain foundations of its modern statehood, including from part of the ruling structures. Therefore, Montenegro’s European path does not depend only on closing negotiating chapters, but also on the ability of society to restore a minimum consensus on the civic character of the state, European values, and democratic rules,” Uljarević and Božović assess.
The authors recommend three interconnected directions for future public policies:
Institutional consolidation and the rule of law
Protection of the civic character of the state and strengthening social cohesion
Understanding European integration as a process of internal state transformation
This entails the depoliticization of institutions, protecting the secular and civic character of the state, improving educational policies and the culture of remembrance, protecting minorities, and developing media literacy and resilience to harmful foreign influences.
“Twenty years after May 21, the question is no longer whether Montenegro has survived as a state, but what kind of state it wants to build. Its independence has been confirmed both internationally and among its citizens. What remains open is whether its European finale will be accompanied by stronger institutions, greater social cohesion, and a consistent rule of law. Not only the pace of European integration, but also the democratic strength, resilience, and future character of Montenegro depend on the answer to that question,” the authors conclude.
