The Regional Academy for the Development of Democracy expresses serious concern regarding repeated voter migration manipulations, which pose an increasing risk to the stability of the Western Balkans. After similar scenarios were witnessed during elections in Serbia and Montenegro, voters are now being organized from Serbia to participate in the local elections in Srebrenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This practice further undermines the already fragile democratic structure in the region, where Vučić’s regime uses its resources and networks to manipulate electoral processes in neighboring countries. During the elections in Srebrenica, a significant number of people from Serbia were observed arriving, raising concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process and the intentions of these voters who do not reside in Srebrenica. According to information from the electoral commission, more voters have cast ballots than are registered.
The Regional Academy for the Development of Democracy calls on the international community to monitor and intervene in such situations to ensure transparency and respect for democratic principles. It is particularly important that the laws and standards of residence and citizenship are adhered to, ensuring that elections are fair and free.
Our region must not be held hostage by Vučić’s manipulation of weekend voters, which undermines democracy and threatens the peace and stability we have fought hard to achieve. We call on all relevant institutions, both in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, to urgently address these irregularities and safeguard the integrity of democratic processes.
The disgraceful and brutal attack by the Prime Minister of Serbia, Miloš Vučević, on the student from Novi Sad, Mila Pajić, is the latest example of dishonor, arrogance, and autocracy. The Prime Minister, who attacked an activist from a position of power by labeling her a promoter of Ustaše ideology, a Serb-hater, and a destroyer of the state, is directly targeting her, calling for her lynching and endangering her safety.
Student Mila Pajić, whose only “crime” was opposing the occupation of the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad and stating that we must confront the crimes committed in the past, dared to speak publicly at a protest that did not sit well with Vučević. She has become a suitable victim for the Prime Minister, who has launched a full-scale attack on her, directing, like any bully, his anger and frustrations towards those he knows are weaker than him. Miloš Vučević, aware and frustrated by the fact that he has no real say either in the government or in the party he leads, chooses his targets exclusively among those he considers unprotected, those on whom he thinks he can “exercise authority,” and those he believes he can intimidate and silence. Even for this government, known for its brutal persecution of anyone who dares to criticize it, such an act is unprecedented.
Vučević must resign for his attack on a citizen, student, and activist. It is the duty of everyone today to stand in defense of Mila Pajić—both international institutions and citizens. By doing so, we defend freedom of speech, critical thinking, and protect all those people and all those students who think for themselves and refuse to accept the uniformity, autocracy, and violence that the government generates, among other things, through such calls for the lynching of dissenters.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić continued the persecution of professor and journalist Dinko Gruhonjić with his statement yesterday, supporting the violent blockade of the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad.
It is unprecedented for a president of a country to address university professors in such a manner, telling them “shame on you,” fully aware that the video which initiated the witch hunt against Dinko Gruhonjić was edited and that he did not praise any war criminal. It seems Aleksandar Vučić has forgotten that individuals have lost their lives following such media campaigns.
As the most powerful man in the country, Aleksandar Vučić is sending a message to the hooligans to continue with the blockade, mimicking some kind of reenactment of a “spontaneous gathering of a people” in which Dinko Gruhonjić is meant to serve as an example of what will happen to anyone who questions the Radical hornet’s nest of Vučić’s regime. Vučić’s behavior towards the autonomy of university and the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad mirrors that of Milošević’s attitude towards the autonomy of Vojvodina, while an organized mob of hooligans wearing t-shirts with the image of the murderer of Prime Minister Đinđić simulates a new “happening of the people.”
Violence stems from words, and with his address, Vučić has called for the violence to continue. This is unacceptable, and he will personally be held responsible for any consequences of this violence! While threatening university professors, Vučić did not once refer to the hooligans who, wearing t-shirts with Legija’s image, blocked the faculty and expelled professors and students from it. We insist on calling them hooligans, not spontaneously gathered students, because only hooligans would wear Ulemek’s image on their shirts in Zoran Đinđić Street, where the faculty is located.
We are very concerned for the safety of all professors and employees at the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad and all those students who, together with their professors, opposed the aggressors who occupied the faculty. Vučić stands behind the discipline imposed on the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad, and there is no doubt about it. We call on the University of Novi Sad, as well as the Universities of Belgrade, Niš, and Novi Pazar, to support their colleagues, and we call on students from all faculties in Serbia to defend their colleagues whose teaching has been hindered by the hooligan blockade. It becomes clear that by defending the Faculty of Philosophy in Novi Sad, we are defending every person in Serbia and their freedom.
The Regional Academy for Democratic Development calls on the authorities to immediately cease the brutal persecution of journalist Ana Lalić, journalists Dinko Gruhonjić and Zoran Kesić, historian Milivoj Bešlin, and activist Aida Ćorović.
The shameful campaign that has been waged against them for days in the regime tabloids directly targets these people, whose only sin lies in the fact that their views do not suit the regime. The insults to which they are daily exposed by the media controlled by the authorities represent a public call to violence, and it is not surprising that death threats have been made against them and their family members since this campaign against them began.
The media conducting this lynching also have accomplices in the state bodies who do not react to these insults or direct threats, and Vučić’s regime will bear the responsibility for any consequences.
Kalevi Sorsa Foundation has supported democracy in the Western Balkans since 200. Additionally, we want to bring the voices of the Western Balkans into the European debate. In this article, the President of a Serbian think tank Academy for Democratic Development, Balša Božović writes about why Finland should take an active role in supporting the Western Balkans path towards the EU membership. He suggests that Finland could support the Western Balkans the same way it did with the Baltic’s in the 1990’s when they were applying for their EU membership.
· Balša Božović
RUSSIA HAS PROVEN ITS ABILITY TO PROVOKE UNREST IN THE WESTERN BALKANS
The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have highlighted Europe’s vulnerabilities. These developments present European Union with a novel set of circumstances requiring the consolidation of its strength, reorganization of its internal capabilities, and the continuation of its role as a beacon of peace, democracy, and freedom across the continent.
In these changing geopolitical landscapes, the European Union finds itself lacking the capacity to defend Ukraine or influence the cessation of hostilities in the Middle East. Obviously, EU must continue the supporting Ukraine, but it also has the opportunity to solve problems in its own immediate neighborhood, notably the Western Balkans.
The onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has further complicated the dynamics within the Western Balkans. Russia has demonstrated not only its ability to halt the region’s progress towards EU integration but also its capacity to instigate unrest, cause instability, and intimidate Europe by suggesting the possibility of opening a ”second front” in the Balkans.
Although lacking the power to incite a widespread war in the region, Russia has shown it can provoke disturbances i.e. in Northern Kosovo, which is evidenced by the terrorist attack in Banjska, Kosovo, thereby signalling to the EU and its Western allies its active and destructive presence in the Western Balkans.
This malign influence is predominantly funnelled through the regime of President Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia. Vučić’s administration, alongside Lukashenko’s in Belarus, stands out in Europe for its refusal to align Serbian foreign and security policy with that of the EU. Amidst the war in Ukraine, Serbian officials have been rewarded by Putin for adhering to a so-called military and foreign policy neutrality, which, in reality, solely benefits Moscow’s regime.
Serbia remains the only country, besides Belarus, not to impose sanctions on Russia. Instead it has chosen to deepen its cooperation with Russia since the onset of aggression against Ukraine. Thus, Russia impedes Serbia’s EU integration and reform processes. Russia has also extended its influence to Northern Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and even North Macedonia.
Does this necessitate Serbia’s isolation? No. Should efforts towards strengthening democracy and rule of law in the Western Balkans be abandoned? Certainly not. Any neglect by Western partners, whether partial or total, merely solidifies Russia’s influence network and further undermines peace in the region.
THE NORDIC COUNTRIES COULD HELP IN RESOLVING WESTERN BALKANS CHALLENGES
Firstly, the political instability of the six small Western Balkan states should be addressed by the European Union. The EU must assert that the Western Balkans fall within its sphere of influence and interest. It needs to demonstrate the functionality of its political mechanisms and its capacity to successfully integrate the Western Balkans. Such actions would significantly bolster the EU’s self-confidence and credibility, as becoming a global power necessitates proving its efficacy as a regional force first.
Secondly, the time has come for EU member states to shoulder part of the burden of Western Balkans European integration, showing additional solidarity with the EU’s consolidation efforts. It’s widely acknowledged that the existing model of EU enlargement has depleted its capacities and trust, necessitating a rejuvenating approach, particularly with the aid of EU member states themselves. Here, the Baltic model of EU integration, associated with Finland, merits consideration.
During the 1990s, as the three Baltic states embarked on their journey towards EU membership, three Nordic EU member states—Denmark, Sweden, and Finland—partnered with Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. These Nordic countries provided the Baltic’s with training for public officials, assistance in law harmonization, institution building, and the establishment of necessary decision-making and implementation procedures. They also facilitated communication with EU institutions. This approach is heralded as the most successful instance of EU integration since 2004, if not in its entire history.
The neutrality of the Nordic countries is one of the reasons to apply the Baltic model in the Western Balkans. The role of the largest member states or neighboring countries, would be problematic for the Western Balkans as they have political interests in the region. It could undermine the citizens trust in the EU and the integration process.
Therefore, the six EU member states – Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Estonia would be excellent partners. They are stable democracies with no particular political interests in the Western Balkans. In addition, they are strongly committed to the EU.
FINLAND CAN BE OF GREAT IMPORTANCE TO THE WESTERN BALKANS COUNTRIES
Finland’s relevance to the Western Balkans extends beyond its democratic achievements and economic stability. Its most critical asset is its extensive experience in counteracting Russian influence, the primary vulnerability of Western Balkan states, especially Serbia, which is the most susceptible to Russian sway.
The advocacy for the Baltic model in the Western Balkans was initiated by Prof. Dr. Vesna Pusić, former Croatian Minister of Foreign Affairs, during the international conference PLENUM in Zagreb in 2022. She articulated the necessity of surrounding Serbia with success to counteract Russian influence, emphasizing the need for a successful integration story by 2030 to restore the EU’s credibility and agility, particularly important for Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and the Western Balkans.
Montenegro, despite its small size and economy, is ready for EU membership but faces political crises instigated by pro-Russian factions and with Serbia’s assistance. Their aim is to derail the country’s European path. Finland, along with Estonia, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Ireland, can support Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina in their democratic reforms and European integration efforts. The support would also symbolize Europe’s return to the Western Balkans.
Serbia, with its substantial pro-European opposition and societal need to escape decades of Moscow’s influence, requires robust and decisive partners like Finland to realign with Europe. The Baltic model of European integration could serve as a vital instrument for the region’s Europeanization, ensuring peace and stability in Southeast Europe.
The Regional Academy for Democratic Development demands that the competent authorities refrain from expelling Russian Elena Koposova and from making a decision to extradite Belarusian journalist and opposition activist Andrej Gnjot to the dictatorial regime in Belarus. The reasons for their threatened expulsion from Serbia and extradition to Belarus are legally non-existent, undemocratic, and violate basic human rights.
Elena Koposova has been living in Serbia with her family for four years and in 2022, she signed an anti-war appeal, which was the reason the Security Information Agency marked her as a threat to Serbia’s security. Journalist and well-known opponent of the dictatorial Belarusian regime, Andrej Gnjot, who was detained by the police the moment he stepped into Serbia and has been in the District Prison in Belgrade for four months, was not even summoned to the court for a hearing when the Belarusian request for his extradition arrived.
We remind that this would not be the first time Serbia extradites political prisoners to undemocratic regimes. Despite the opposition of the United Nations and decisions by the European Court of Human Rights, individuals have been extradited to Turkey and Bahrain, where they face persecution, torture, and death. Just a few days after the murder of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the expulsion of Koposova from Serbia and the extradition of Gnjot to Belarus would be a message that the regime in Serbia supports the persecution and inhumane treatment of critics of dictatorial regimes in Russia and Belarus.
CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN THE WESTERN BALKANS AND THE ROLE OF THE WEST
Serbian nationalism, historically aligned with Russia, instigated four wars in the 1990s against Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and NATO. Although Slobodan Milošević was ousted in 2000, the nationalist elite responsible for the wars has never been removed from power. Post-2000, a coalition between the nationalist elite, the Serbian Orthodox Church, and Russia gave rise to the “Serb World,” aligning with the security and foreign policy of the “Russian World” in the Western Balkans. Nationalists in Serbia acknowledge neighboring countries’ territorial integrity but deny their sovereignty, advocating that only nations possess sovereignty, making borders relative. President Aleksandar Vučić considers himself the leader of all Serbs, adopting a doctrine of limited sovereignty. This nationalism asserts the right to intervene where Serbs reside under the pretext of protecting Serbian rights, mirroring the Russian narrative in the Ukraine conflict, and fostering a centralized, corrupt regime with anti-European sentiments. This regime cannot create strong and independent institutions; only para-states influenced by Russia.
Western efforts to redirect Serbia’s allegiance from Russia to the West are misguided. The “Serbian World” aims to prevent neighboring countries, particularly those with Serb populations, from joining the EU, advocating for Serbs to be unified in one place and not divided between the EU and Serbia. Belgrade prevented a pro-EU government from being formed in Montenegro and supported pro-Russian factions entering the government, seeks to destabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina through Russian and Serbian proxies in Republika Srpska, and provokes ethnic conflict in Kosovo.
Potential solutions
Democratization and decentralization of Serbia: Centralization and autocracy are powerful tools of aggressive Serbian nationalism. Until Serbia undergoes democratization, freedom and democracy for its citizens, and peace for neighboring states, will remain elusive.
Baltic model of EU integration process: This model involves strong partnerships between Western Balkan countries and stable EU democracies that have no specific political agendas in the region. During the 1990s, when the three Baltic states embarked on their path towards EU membership, three Nordic EU member states partnered with them. They trained their public officials, and helped harmonize laws, build institutions, and introduce necessary decision-making and implementation procedures. They also facilitated their communication with EU institutions. To this day, it is considered the most successful integration into the EU since 2004. Partners for Western Balkan aspirant states cannot be the largest EU members, nor the states too close to the region. The reason is the latent danger that the neighboring states have their political agendas in the region, leading to a distrust among the citizens of the Western Balkan countries in their bona fide intentions. In summary, the six EU member states, partners to the Western Balkan countries on their path to the EU, should all be stable democracies without specific political agendas in the region and have a strong EU orientation.
Bosnia and Herzegovina as a civil state: Propose a democratic constitution for Bosnia and Herzegovina, initiating electoral law reforms based on universal voting rights rather than ethnicity.
Kosovo’s NATO integration: Facilitate Kosovo’s NATO membership and establish the Association of Serb Municipalities without executive powers.
Montenegro’s EU membership: Liberate Montenegro from Russian and Serbian influence through its accelerated accession to the EU.
The Parliamentary groups of SPD, Bündnis90/Die Grünen and FDP have proposed a resolution on Bosnia and Herzegovina titled Supporting Bosnia and Herzegovina as it embarks to a better future.
We the undersigned believe that this resolution comes at truly important and challenging time for the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina. We applaud the party groups’ initiative and welcome the resolution’s content.
The resolution is laudably comprehensive, listing numerous challenges which Bosnia and Herzegovina and its citizens face at the present moment. It draws its observations and recommendations on the basis of comprehensive and clear analysis of the 25+ years of postwar reconstruction and peace implementation in BiH. It will also assist the latent constituency for dignity and democratic accountability in a state which functions in service of all its citizens.
We support the content of the resolution in its totality, but in this letter, as citizens of the region, we would like to underscore three elements:
We believe that Bosnia and Herzegovina can become a stable and functional democratic state based on the rule of law. Its constitution should guarantee protection and equality to all citizens and facilitate social integration rather than ethnic polarization. Serbs and Croats are integral and essential to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s social fabric, rent so viciously and wantonly beginning 30 years ago. Their agency and engagement, along with Bosniaks and citizens of all self-identification, is essential to progressing out of Dayton’s evolutionary dead-end. At present, group rights in Bosnia and Herzegovina precede individual nrights of its citizens. Politicians treat citizens as subjects, rightfully “theirs” based on their presumed (or proclaimed) ethnic identity. It is high time to proclaim that this stopgap system is unsustainable. Bosnia and Herzegovina requires a radical recalibration of its social contract, allowing it to join a now rejuvenating alignment among liberal democracies, committed to defending fundamental values.
We support the resolution’s call for Serbia and Croatia to be helpful neighbors to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
It is in the interest of citizens of Serbia and Croatia to live alongside a stable Bosnia and Herzegovina. BiH’s protracted instability, which Germany and the rest of the democratic West can confront, has put wind in the sails of the most reactionary and irridentist elements in these two neighbors. These relationships were better 19 years ago than today, when the door to EU membership formally opened to the region at the Thessaloniki 2003 summit. This defies the prevailing presumption of progress. Supporting the destructive policies of Serb and Croat ethnonationalists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Serbia work against the interests of their own citizens who predominantly and overwhelmingly want peace, stability and prosperity at home and in our neighborhood.
We find the intention to promote cooperation with liberal democratic civil society extremely important.
We also hasten to add that civic actors in BiH have lessons relevant to established democracies now confronting a rise in identity-based polarization, often driven from above. European leaders wrongly focus on contacts and cooperation only with party leaders and elected officials in Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are often responsible for the for-profit politics that yield endemic corruption and state dysfunction, driving citizens to Germany and beyond – impoverishing BiH while contributing where they settle – and thereby reinforcing the dominance of the party leaders.
We hope that this resolution passes with wide support in the Bundestag. It should inspire more democracies – particularly in the EU and NATO – to make similarly principled and well-informed declarations by cross-party groups as wide as feasible. Principled and forward-thinking European leaders should make an effort to reach out and strengthen partnerships with actors throughout society in Bosnia and Herzegovina who take initiative to entrench the rule of law and strong accountable democratic institutions. By focusing on cooperating predominantly with corrupt ethnonationalists, European officials undercut and demotivate those envisioning and pursuing an order based on individual dignity, political and legal accountability, and civic agency. Expanding a network of contacts and channels of support to progress-oriented actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina contributes to their capability to confront corruption and the lack of the rule of law, and aids their potential to challenge existing ethnonationalists.
You can read the Letter of support on the following link:
Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina defied Western unity on sanctions against Russia —reflecting Moscow’s destabilising influence in the Balkans
In the series of the meetings with world leaders before the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin insisted that Russia is endangered and has a right to ‘intervention’ to solve disputes between the West and Russia. Led by the nationalist narrative of the ‘Russian world’ – that all Russians have the right to live in one country – he claimed that Ukrainians are not a nation but in fact Russians. Ukraine is not a state, he went on, but Lenin’s project, and it ought to be incorporated into Russia. Putin’s rhetoric bears a striking resemblance to the narrative Slobodan Milošević employed to start the war in Yugoslavia in 1991 – and to today’s narrative of a ‘Serbian world’ directed towards Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Now, weeks after the invasion started, Putin and Russia are in the most difficult situation since the end of the Cold War. The Russian economy is suffering from unprecedented sanctions, and Putin may be charged for war crimes. Some would say he resembles Milošević – only with nuclear bombs.
In response to Putin’s aggression, the West has become more united than ever before. It has isolated Russia financially, and the EU is closer than ever before to award Ukraine candidate status. Putin’s increasingly desperate moves – making nuclear threats to everyone who dares to aid Ukraine, for instance – led to even his closest autocratic allies, such as Viktor Orbán, turn their backs at him. However, there are a few black sheep in Europe that defied the unified Western response: Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina refused to introduce sanctions on Russia. In Bosnia, it failed because of the blockade of the Serbian and pro-Russian member of Presidency, Milorad Dodik.
The Western Balkans are Europe’s weak spot
In this context, we can see ever more clearly how certain regimes in the Western Balkans played a role in paving the way for a wider conflict between Russia and the West, including the destruction of the well-funded Western security architecture in the Western Balkans. Moscow had worked towards the destabilisation of Europe and NATO for a long time, and primarily through two channels in the Western Balkans – politics and security.
The political channel operated in two ways. First, Putin tried to stall European integration of the countries of the Western Balkans. Second, he attempted to undermine NATO enlargement through the destabilisation of Montenegro and North Macedonia. In 2016, an attempted coup d’état and assassination of President Milo Djukanovic was supported by Putin’s regime, as well as the Russian and Serbian Orthodox Church. In 2017, Russian intelligence supported the storming of parliament and attack on then opposition leader Zoran Zaev in North Macedonia.
From a security perspective, Moscow provided support to the project of changing borders in the Western Balkans through creation of three greater states: Serbia – the project of a Serbian world mirroring the Russian world –, Albania, and Croatia that would absorb little states and nations such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. In last consequence, this would lead to a new war in the Balkans.
Now, Putin’s last trump card in Europe would be provoking a new conflict through his proxies in an attempt to divert NATO’s and EU’s attention to the Western Balkans.
Europe’s opportunity to counteract
However, despite their weakness, Western Balkan states are more or less successfully resisting Russian hybrid aggression. The biggest challenge is regime in Serbia which is highly integrated into Russian and Chinese zone of influence. Formally, Serbia is ‘militarily neutral’, but it needs help to exit the grip of the Russian influence.
The EU now has an opportunity to become more resolute in its foreign and security policy. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova have applied for EU membership. This has evidently raised expectations elsewhere. This is why the EU should first finish its job in the Western Balkans and continue the integration of countries that are already negotiating. Montenegro, as a NATO member state that opened all negotiating chapters, could relatively quickly become part of the EU. This would come at an unsignificant cost for the EU considering its small number of inhabitants and its adaptable economy. More importantly, it would send a strong message to the Western Balkans and the democratic world – that EU does not give up on the vision of its founders.
Albania and North Macedonia, also NATO member states, could finally get long-expected dates for the start of negotiations. Bosnia and Herzegovina needs the EU’s and NATO’s attention because of its security issues, since there is still ongoing debate about the electoral legislation and organisation of the country which needs to be established on civic, and not ethnic, principles. Kosovo is likely to become a NATO member state, which would accelerate the comprehensive agreement with Serbia and remove the illusion about Kosovo joining greater Albania.
The international circumstances have changed – the Western world shows more unity and solidarity today than just a few days ago. This momentum should be used for a more agile EU policy in the Western Balkans – without forgetting that the ultimate priority is to stop the war in Ukraine.
Published in: International Politics and Society onMarch 16, 2022
Hundreds of insulting messages, including dozens of direct death threats, were sent to the President of the Executive Board of the Academy for Democratic Development, Balša Božović, after last night’s television duel with Ratko Mladić’s lawyer, Branko Lukić, on the TV show “Usijanje” on Kurir TV. The fact that some of them were sent to his private phone number gives additional reasons for concern. Among the death threats are photos of people with firearms, as well as those in the official uniforms of the Serbian gendarmerie, undisguised threats of violence, unimaginable insults and the spread of hatred.
After the Regional Academy for Democratic Development, as one of the partner organizations and co-organizers, invited citizens to mark the International Day against Fascism and Anti-Semitism by removing the mural dedicated to convicted war criminal Ratko Mladic, hundreds of open death threats, the worst insults, calls for lynching and threats to forcefully leave the country have been sent to social media accounts of the organization.
The Regional Academy for Democratic Development calls on the relevant authorities to react urgently, identify and sanction the perpetrators. Serbia must not send the message that glorifying war criminals is an official policy, and the protection of perpetrators and those who threaten death is desirable, acceptable and permissible behavior.
Small part of the death threats and insults addressed to Balsa Bozovic and ADD can be found below.
