Regional Plenum Quo vadis, Balkan? in Sarajevo: The Impact of European and American Elections on the Region – The Western Balkans are Not in the Focus of the Political West

The fifth Regional Plenum Quo vadis, Balkan? is being held in Sarajevo from June 6 to 8, and, as every year, it will gather a large number of experts, officials, organizations, academic and state institutions, decision-makers, as well as representatives of the media, diplomatic delegations, and the academic community.

This year, the partner of the Regional Academy for Democratic Development from Novi Sad and the Center for Civic Education from Podgorica in organizing the Plenum is the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Sarajevo, and it is realized with the support of the European Fund for the Balkans. The Regional Plenum Quo vadis, Balkan? is one of the most significant regional initiatives that brings together prominent civil society organizations, experts, and activists dealing with the topics of democracy, reconciliation, and regional cooperation.

The fourth panel at this year’s plenum was dedicated to the impact that European and American elections will have in the Western Balkans. The speakers on the panel were Dr. Srđan Darmanović, professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences at the University of Montenegro and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Jasmin Mujanović, political scientist from the United States, Prof. Dr. Vesna Pusić, former Minister of European Integration and Foreign Affairs in the Government of Croatia, Dimitrije Milić, political scientist from Serbia, and Adnan Čerimagić, analyst at the European Stability Initiative from Germany. The panel was moderated by Jasmina Kos.

Adnan Čerimagić began his presentation by analyzing the impact of European elections on the region, stating that the key question is whether the European Parliament elections will create conditions for significant reform of the European Union, as the fate of the entire enlargement policy depends on it. The European Parliament elections will have a dual impact – primarily on the confidence of Berlin and Paris, but also on the confidence of other centers in the European Union. Some early results indicate that far-right parties are not achieving as much success as expected, suggesting that the results will be uncertain until the end, and that we will get answers to many questions only on Sunday evening. The election results will significantly influence the decision on who will lead the enlargement policy, which is crucial for the Western Balkans and the policies the EU will adopt towards it. He posed the question of whether the story of European integration is the only story in the region or just one of many. He said that the example of North Macedonia shows the failure of the EU based on democratic reforms, respect for human and minority rights, the rule of law, and strong institutions, and that this failure resulted in the convincing victory of VMRO in the elections a few weeks ago.

Srđan Darmanović, in his opening remarks, said that this is the year of elections in the world, that in some countries like Russia, Belarus, or Azerbaijan, they were held only formally, while in others citizens genuinely decide how they will live. He emphasized that the latest projections show no reason to believe that the EU will drastically change its enlargement policy and that we will not witness a major shake-up in the political landscape of Europe. Regarding the American elections, he said it is likely that a democratic administration would continue with the current policy, but it is clear that many retrograde forces in the region eagerly await Trump’s victory. Speaking about the situation in Montenegro, he said it is under great pressure, but the current power dynamics mean that Serbian nationalist parties do not have a majority in society, although they might enter the government. He emphasized that the government legitimizes itself as pro-European and pro-Western, but the church retains its influence.

Jasmin Mujanović focused on the impact of American elections on the situation in the region. He said it is likely that Biden will win, albeit by a small margin, and that Trump’s victory would be catastrophic for both the US and its position in the world, as well as for all US allies, especially Ukraine. He reminded that regarding the Western Balkans, Biden’s administration has been a major disappointment. In some sense, it represented a continuation of Obama’s policy towards the region, and the Obama administration was characterized by a lack of interest in the Balkans, leading to a deterioration of the situation in all countries of the region under the current Biden administration. He said it is surprising the support the regime in Serbia receives from the US embassy and that it seems there is nothing the Serbian regime can do to show the political West that it is not a partner. Assessing the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, he said that the real problems are actually official Belgrade and official Zagreb, not Dodik or Čović, and that solutions should be sought there.

Vesna Pusić, commenting on the topic, stated that it is difficult to draw a parallel between European elections and any other elections, as the European Parliament, in terms of jurisdiction and policy-making, is much different from all other parliaments in the world, and that all important decisions are actually made by the European Council. In this sense, she assessed, they are more an indicator of the direction future policies of member states will take, rather than the EU adopting new policies, especially regarding the Western Balkans. Speaking about the US elections, she said that although all criticisms of Biden’s administration and its policy towards the Western Balkans are justified, we must keep in mind that the alternative, that is, Trump’s return to power, is much worse and could mean even war in these regions, and the question of what would happen to the European Union remains. It would be a global tragedy. She also assessed that the beginning of Vučić’s term in 2012 and the opening of negotiations were an opportunity for Serbia to irreversibly move towards European integration, but that chance was missed. She concluded by saying that we must be aware that whenever politicians talk about not allowing Western domination, they are actually trying to create an atmosphere in society that looks at the entire system of democratic governance with suspicion.

Dimitrije Milić said that the policy of balancing in Serbia’s foreign policy began in 2008 when the economic crisis started and when economic conditions opened the door for other influences, primarily Chinese. Non-Western and undemocratic actors took advantage of the opportunity presented to them, and this was aided by the electorate in Serbia turning to anti-Westernism or Euroscepticism, pro-Russian sentiment, which limited the political elites’ room to offer a purely pro-European story. At its core is the perception that has existed in Serbia since the 1990s, that the liberal world order is aimed solely at harming Serbia and that it just needs to wait for this order to collapse.