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Manipulating and revising history is an easy way to homogenize and mobilize voters

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Yesterday, in the organization of the Regional Academy for the Development of Democracy (ADD) from Novi Sad, the Center for Dealing with the Past Documenta from Zagreb and the Centre for Civic Education from Podgorica (CCE), with the support of the European Balkans Fund (EFB), started ZAGREB PLENUM – QUO VADIS, BALKANS? whose third panel was dedicated to the revision and misuse of history for daily political purposes. Prominent historians and university professors Ivo Goldstein from Croatia, MilIvoj Bešlin from Serbia, Husnija Kamberović from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Boban Batrićević from Montenegro and Dubravka Stojanović from Serbia spoke at the panel, moderated by Dragan Mrakovina from Croatia.

Dubravka Stojanović said that “countries in the region live from manipulating victims and traumas from the past” and that this is the main reason why they do not want to determine the number of victims or the truth about what happened, and that these issues can always serve to divert attention from other topics. She pointed out the paradox that “nationalisms in the region, instead of celebrating victories and heroes, are actually much more concerned with defeats and sufferings, victims and losses because they are more suitable for homogenization, illusion and manipulation”. Commenting on the recent proclamation of the Croatian Academy of Sciences and Arts (HAZU) on the protection of Croatian interests in negotiations with B&H, Montenegro and Serbia regarding their accession to the European Union and the polemics with the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts created on that occasion, Stojanović said it would be fair to those who started the project of war, its ideologues who produced those narratives to be now the ones to cross spears, hence it would be easier for everyone if the leaderships of the academies faced and fought on some imaginary battlefield instead of losing all innocent lives.

Historian Ivo Goldstein considers that any comparison of the HAZU memorandum with the former SANU memorandum is inappropriate, since the SANU memorandum was signed, while the HAZU memorandum is not, but it is also a document unworthy of an academy, a wish list without visible criteria and consistency. He added that these two documents cannot be compared in terms of the influence they had on society, since the SANU memorandum once determined the fate of the entire region, while this one did not resonate with the Croatian political public. Speaking about the culture of remembrance, Goldstein assessed that there are no politicians in the region who would work on bringing them closer and that “we have completely different, separate and opposing cultures of remembrance which are very important for our societies and without which are no healthy good neighborly and human relations”. He assessed that in that sense that “we continue to function as tribal communities where we are honest, correct, always right, gullible, and everyone else wants to harm us and have always done us injustice“, concluding that in our countries history is still perceived and presented in that manner.

Husnija Kamberović, a historian from Sarajevo, spoke about the Jasenovac camp. He stated that “Bosnia and Herzegovina forgets or does not know the fact that both Jasenovac and the Independent State of Croatia are largely connected to a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s past and historical heritage”, and referred to attempts to create a narrative that Jasenovac is a camp exclusively Serbs were killed and, in this manner, hence this terrible crime from the Second World War was manipulated.

Milivoj Bešlin spoke about the parallel between the wars of the 1990s and the Second World War, assessing that “in the Second World War, all nationalisms of the Yugoslav people were on one side, and the anti-fascist movement on the other”. He said that “Serbia in the culture of remembrance is moving through “four Rs”, with the first “R” meaning war, which was provoked when Serbia opened the “Serbian question” as a territorial, and not as a democratic or civil rights issue. The second “R”, according to him, means revisionism, on the example of World War II, which was necessary to attack Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia, because it could not be done on the values and ideology of anti-fascism, but only on the ideology and rehabilitation of Chetniks. Further, the third “R” refers to the rehabilitation of war crimes and World War II war criminals. Bešlin noted with regret that everything that was a trend in the 1990s reached its peak after 5 October, during Kostunica’s time, and that few warned that the rehabilitation of crimes and criminals from the Second World War would lead to the rehabilitation of criminals from the 1990s. This leads to the fourth “R” – revanchism – which was best described by Ivica Dačić, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, with his statement that those who think that the wars are over are wrong because the second half awaits us.

Boban Batrićević, from Montenegro, believes that “the Serbian Orthodox Church has a key role in spreading foreign influence, which since the arrival of Amfilohije to the position of metropolitan has taken on three key elements – it begins to be anti-Montenegrin, anti-state and revisionist“. He further clarified that Amfilohije begins his mission by spreading Chetnik propaganda, creating big problems in Montenegro. Batrićević stated it is also concerning that Western embassies helped Amfilohije’s politics come to power, and assessed that “the winner of the elections from two years ago in Montenegro was essentially Amfilohije and his policy of Great Serbian nationalism”. Batrićevć recognized as the big problem in the fact that “a significant part of the intellectual elite in Serbia views Montenegro in the same way, just as there is no difference between the government and the opposition when it comes to relations with Montenegro”.

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Perseverance and readiness not to withdraw before attacks are key to reconciliation and confidence building

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The second day of the ZAGREB PLENUM – QUO VADIS, BALKANS? organized by the Regional Academy for Democratic Development (ADD) from Novi Sad, Documenta – Centre for Dealing with the Past from Zagreb and Centre for Civic Education (CCE) from Podgorica, with the support of the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB), started with the panel dedicated to dealing with the past and peace building in the region.

Marion Kaske, a political analyst from Germany, assessed that “in the region, history has become a dangerous weapon and a way to keep the political elite in power by manipulating and distorting facts, spreading fear and completing certain plans from the war period of the 1990s”. She considers that the political climate in the region is getting worse, that political reconciliation has not even begun, that trust is at a very low level, and that there is no readiness to convict crimes and criminals, while the verdicts of the International Criminal Tribunal are perceived as hostile acts. Speaking from Germany’s perspective, she recalled that the country was forced to go through a process of denazification, not only through the Nuremberg trials, but also through all other areas of social, public and political life, such as media freedom, education, while the region of Western Balkans lacks all of this. “The main reason why political elites do not want to work on reconciliation and confidence building is that they live from the past, from provoking conflicts, and that is why the current situation suits them perfectly”, she said. Kraske also said that it is necessary to recognize and support those who are ready for different types of politics, building better relations in the region, dealing with the past and reconciliation.

Shpetim Gashi, a human rights activist from Kosovo, said that we are facing problems that have existed for decades and that each succeeding generation has added and further complicated existing problems, while very few have actually tried to solve them. Speaking about the situation between Kosovo and Serbia, he said that it is first necessary to conclude some kind of peace agreement, and only then start the reconciliation process. Gashi warned that “as long as this problem remains open, people in border areas do not even have that kind of certainty to know in which country they will live in the near future”. He assessed that even symbolic actions, such as apologies, would contribute to building better relations, but that there is no political will for them. As an example, he cited the return of Dragica Gašić to Gjakova and the fact that no one spoke up at the time she was subjected to harassment and persecution, stood up for her and said she had the right to return, whether that’s institutions, politicians or the NGO sector.

Kurt Bassuener, from the Democratization Policy Council in Berlin, said that ten years ago the basic idea was that European integration would solve all the problems in the region. He warned that “the situation has greatly deteriorated compared to twenty years ago” and said that many things that were unthinkable then seem very possible today and that “this is a time when many unfinished agendas, unfulfilled dreams and unfulfilled plans are being revived”. Bassuener agrees with the assessments that the model of functioning of political elites is to keep people in fear and fuel conflicts. He considers that the role of the international community is sometimes confusing, and the West is inconsistent in its attitudes and demands, and that in recent years the prevailing approach is not to put too much pressure on the countries of the region so as not to create additional problems, be demotivated to cooperate with the West, turned to the other side and the like.

Tamara Zrnović, from the Centre for Nonviolent Action in Sarajevo, shared the experiences of her organization, which works with war veterans on all sides of the conflict and the difficult path of building trust between them. She cited examples of visits to commemorations and various places where war crimes were committed, and warned of how fragile the reconciliation process is and how much it rests on humanity, positive emotions, empathy and solidarity. Commenting on the Law on Prohibition of Genocide Denial, Zrnović said that many who criticize this Law have not even read what it says and that it should be viewed in a broader light – “as an attempt to sanction any glorification of crimes, criminals and humiliation of victims”. She stated that it took the Centre for Nonviolent Action ten years to enter Mostar with a group of war veterans, as well as that it took decades to build trust and that it is crucial not to give up in the face of numerous obstacles and condemnations.

Zagreb Plenum is the second in a series of events aimed at empowering progressive forces in the region through gatherings and talks on modalities to respond to growing right-wing extremism, the crisis of democracy, current challenges and obstacles to democratization in the region. In the next two days, the Zagreb Plenum will gather about 50 domestic, regional and international experts, officials, members of national parliaments and the European Parliament, diplomats, historians, journalists, publicists, representatives of the academic community and prominent activists.

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Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has exposed the core of relations between states and within states

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Within the second day of the ZAGREB PLENUM – QUO VADIS, BALKANS? organized by the Regional Academy for Democratic Development (ADD) from Novi Sad, Documenta – Centre for Dealing with the Past from Zagreb and Centre for Civic Education (CCE) from Podgorica, with the support of the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB), one panel was devoted to the analysis of the impact of Russian aggression on Ukraine and populism on the growth of the right in the region. About this important topic spoke prominent writers, publicists and journalists from the region, while moderated by Lana Zdravković, peace activist and publicist from Ljubljana.

Dinko Gruhonjić, journalist and associate professor at the University of Novi Sad, assessed that Serbia has traditionally been a factor of instability in the Western Balkans, and that it continues its infamous role in the conditions of the war in Ukraine. He said that “it is absurd to talk about putting pressure on Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia, since it is a matter of civilization and common sense”, and that it is devastating that someone has to pressure Serbia to do the only right thing and be on the right side of history. Gruhonjić also said that the question arises as to how much patience those who put pressure on Serbia will have, noting that the situation in the region will be increasingly difficult, the longer they will endure such behaviour of the authorities in Serbia. He pointed out that it took a long time for the West to understand how much of a threat Putin actually poses to stability and peace throughout Europe, and that pragmatic attitudes, which put economic interests at the forefront, have cost him dearly. He further added that Vučić is not a problem of Serbia, but that he is the smallest common denominator of what Serbia is today and that Serbia has essentially never had anything other than authoritarianism and that democracy, except in illusion, has never existed. He considers that Vučić knows this situation very well and that radicalism in Serbia has always been very well rooted, just like pro-Russian politics. He also assessed that “society in Serbia in the 1990s, just like any other society that produces war, was contaminated in all its spheres and in 2000 it turned out that this problem could not be easily solved, and it was only just after 2000 that nationalism, with the key role played by the Serbian Orthodox Church gained momentum and strength.” He said that this is reflected in the fact that today in Serbia there is no clear position on fundamental and civilizational issues, such as genocide, the war in Ukraine and even the Second World War.

Speaking about the situation in Croatia, journalist and publicist Boris Pavelić said that “it is crucial for democracy in Croatia that the left produces a civic-oriented candidate as soon as possible.” He assessed that “Milanović deceived his voters, radically changed the attitudes he advocated and completely deinstitutionalized the institution of the president.” He added that we in the Balkans today are living in a multiplied crisis. The nationalism of the 1990s, which is a kind of crisis in itself and which sparked war, a pandemic, the coming global energy crisis, the climate crisis, the economic crisis, the nuclear threat, according to him, should indicate that the human rights movement in the Balkans should try to devise a new way of acting. He concluded that “the civil sector and all progressive forces must begin to unite and act in synchrony, first locally, regionally, and then globally”.

Dino Mustafić, a director from Sarajevo, said that “Russian aggression against Ukraine has exposed relations and policies in Bosnia and Herzegovina” and that it is hardly the first time that it has been shown that Bosnia does not have a common foreign policy, that it is incidental and dependent on ethnicity, officials or representatives of Bosnia in various international institutions. He assessed that “although almost all parties in Bosnia rhetorically pursue a pro-European policy, in practice these policies are anti-European and anti-democratic.” Mustafić also said that it is known that Dodik’s stories about “peaceful separation” cannot be implemented because the composition, arrangement, the way Bosnia and Herzegovina functions do not allow such a scenario. According to him, in B&H there is a conceptual division between those who advocate the prototype of ethnic democracy and those who want to achieve a balance between democratic and ethnic. Mustafić said that the matrix on the endangerment of the Serbian people in Bosnia and Herzegovina is very dangerous and that, as usual, from all these stories about endangerment it is ordinary people who pay the highest price for such statements. He concluded that “Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot function without international supervision”.

Edvin Ćudić, a journalist and human rights activist from Sarajevo, said that Bosnia today is a state of ethnic apartheid and that it does not matter whether you know something and how competent you are, but only which ethnic group you belong to. Ćudić believes that some media reported as if the war had already begun, that the media were being abused and serving ethnic propaganda, and he cited the television of Republic of Srpska as a glaring example of that. He added that Western countries have recognized the Republic of Srpska, but that today it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Republic of Srpska is a problem to the West. Ćudić also stated that it is harder to speak about Srebrenica in Banja Luka today than it was twenty years ago, emphasizing that in Bosnia and Herzegovina the socialist collective has been replaced by an ethnic one.

 
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Progressive forces in the region should not retreat in front of a retrograde and loud minority

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The panel, which discussed the possibilities of politicians of civic orientation, civil society organizations and activists to influence better relations in the region, yesterday ended the ZAGREB PLENUM – QUO VADIS, BALKANS? organized by the Regional Academy for the Development of Democracy (ADD) from Novi Sad, the Center for Dealing with the Past Documenta from Zagreb and the Centre for Civic Education (CCE) from Podgorica, with the support of the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB). The panel was moderated by Branka Vierda, coordinator of the justice programme at the Youth Initiative for Human Rights in Croatia.

The representative of the Možemo coalition in the Parliament of the Republic of Croatia, Sandra Benčić, spoke about the policy of remembrance and reconciliation and about the attempts to raise these issues in the Parliament in a different way. She said that “several examples from Zagreb, such as the mayor’s speech at the monument to Aleksandra Zec or the unveiling of the monument to the victims of Ustasha terror, showed that we can work on a local level on reconciliation and a culture of remembrance”.  Benčić considers that it is not true that these topics are controversial in Croatia and that they cause divisions, stating that the majority of Croatian citizens do not perceive them in that manner. She concluded that “progressive forces must stop dealing with the ideological margin that pulls society backwards“, and that they must start focusing on essential things and achieve cooperation there, especially when it comes to seemingly “small topics”. Benčić concluded that “progressive forces in the region should send a message of hope and faith in victory and that they should not retreat in front of a retrograde and very loud minority”.

Lana Prlić, representative of the House of Representatives of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliament, said that “young people in Bosnia and Herzegovina have very radical views despite knowing very little about what happened during the war” and that political parties do not offer them nothing but the shackles of the 1990s, sometimes even the 1940s. She added that “education on the principle of ‘two schools under one roof’ is shameful and cannot, in any way, contribute to the creation of generations whose future will be different and better”.

Councilor of the Belgrade City Assembly from the Moramo coalition, Dobrica Veselinović, said that he believes that “it is possible to reach big topics through small topics” and that is the road to achieving cooperation on issues that are essential for the future of all our citizens. “It is clear that there is a triangle of pollution in the entire Balkans caused by coal-fired power plants and that is why our cities are the most polluted in Europe, and it showed that cooperation on these topics is possible”, he explained. He said that “hope that a new political age is coming and generations of politicians who will not be afraid to stand up for true values and will not calculate for them because of daily political points”.

The European parliamentarian from Croatia, Predrag Matić, said that it is crucial for the countries of the Western Balkans to work on their own relations, and that the European Union currently has numerous priorities that do not include the countries of our region.

With the Zagreb Plenum, after the Podgorica Plenum, the work on strengthening the progressive forces in the region through gatherings and talks on modalities of response to growing right-wing extremism, the crisis of democracy, current challenges and obstacles to democratization in the region is continued.

 
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Zagreb Plenum QUO VADIS BALKANS – proposals by Vesna Pusić for B&H

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In Zagreb, from 26 to 28 May, organized by the Regional Academy for the Development of Democracy (ADD) from Novi Sad, the Center for Dealing with the Past Documenta from Zagreb and the Centre for Civic Education (CCE) from Podgorica, with the support of the European Balkans Fund (EFB), ZAGREB PLENUM – QUO VADIS, BALKANS? was held.

The Zagreb Plenum is the second in a series of events aimed at empowering progressive forces in the region through gatherings and talks on ways to respond to growing right-wing extremism, the crisis of democracy, current challenges and obstacles to democratization in the region. Within the two days, more than 50 domestic, regional and international experts, officials, members of national parliaments and the European Parliament, diplomats, historians, journalists, publicists, academics and prominent activists from Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Slovenia and Kosovo gathered in Zagreb.

Discussions and six separate panels at the Zagreb Plenum were dedicated to current topics and problems that countries in the region face with. The most significant challenges and obstacles to democratization of the region, relations between countries and regional cooperation, the position towards war crimes and dealing with the past, abuse of history for daily political purposes, impact of Russian aggression on Ukraine on the situation in the region, attempts to confidence-building and opportunities for politicians, movements, parties and civil society activists to counter negative tendencies at the local and regional level were discussed.

Participants and panelists of the Zagreb Plenum agreed that reconciliation, confidence-building and dealing with the past have no alternative when it comes to establishing regional cooperation, but also agreed on some of the concrete steps that must be taken to achieve a better future for all citizens of the region. Most participants expressed concern over the fact that the security and political situation is worse than twenty years ago and assessed that immediately after the end of the armed conflict there was more potential for cooperation and building sustainable peace than nowadays. The assessment is that the political elites have no interest in resolving the conflicts that still exist, closing open issues, and finally overcoming the past. The same refers to the case of the registry of victims of the wars of the 1990s, which is manipulated for the sake of daily political points and needs, as well as historical facts that are twisted and changed every day to create myths and keep political elites in power throughout the region.

The plenum also pointed out the disastrous influence of Russia on the situation in the region, as well as the fact that the Russian aggression on Ukraine completely changed the bloodstream of international relations, and that all countries in the region, without exception, will have to take a stance. It was assessed also that the foreign policies of Croatia and Serbia towards Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro disrupt good neighborly relations and destabilize the entire region, and that the role of the two countries that are already members of the European Union, Croatia and Slovenia, is not what it should be in terms of greater support for the Western Balkans and encouragement for reforms that are a precondition for European integration. The panelists agreed that it is necessary to nurture the common culture of remembrance, and that it is possible to do so in all communities and at all levels – from local to the highest.

The Zagreb Plenum also adopted some of the measures and conclusions, made and presented by Vesna Pusić, former Minister of Foreign and European Affairs in the Government of Croatia. The conclusions concern concrete proposals for a model for the integration of the Western Balkans into the European Union and special support for Bosnia and Herzegovina in overcoming the current five-point political crisis.

  • For the integration of the so-called Western Balkans in the EU, it is needed to apply the Baltic model of integration. Back in the 1990s, when the three Baltic states began their path to EU membership, three Nordic member states entered into a partnership with them: Denmark, Sweden and Finland, with Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. That partnership included training for civil servants, assistance in harmonizing laws, building institutions and introducing the necessary procedures for decision-making and implementation. Of course, they also facilitated their communication with EU institutions. To date, it is considered the most successful EU integration since 2004. Partners to aspirant countries from the Western Balkans can be neither the largest EU member states, nor, unfortunately, the countries from the region, including Austria and Hungary. The reason for this is the latent danger that the neighbouring countries have their political agendas and goals in the region and therefore there is no trust among the citizens of the Western Balkans in their bona fide The six member states, partners in the Western Balkans on their path to the EU, could be Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Ireland, Portugal and the Netherlands. These are all stable democracies, without special political agendas in the region, and with strong EU orientation.
  • When it comes to Bosnia and Herzegovina, this country already has the institution of the High Representative. In combination and partnership with one of the Nordic Member States, for example, it could focus on institution building and the introduction of procedures leading to EU membership. Additionally, in this period should:
    • Strengthen the presence/number of EUFOR throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina;
    • Start drafting a democratic B&H Constitution to replace the fourth annex to the Dayton Peace Agreement;
    • Start drafting an election law that would take into account two important components: the concept of B&H as a civic state (because modern democracies do not know other models) and at the same time introduce some mechanisms for the protection of collective ethnic rights. Given the recent past and the current political climate, it is necessary to take care of the protection and guarantee the collective rights of individual peoples. There are many examples in the world that can be used. But that cannot be instead of or to the detriment of the fundamental idea of ​​a civic state – one person, one vote. The protection of collective rights is an additional form of preventing possible ethnic discrimination, not a substitute for the equality of all citizens in their rights;
    • Insist that all changes related to EU membership take place simultaneously and throughout the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina;
    • Develop political partnerships with non-ethnic political parties and leaders.

At the Novi Sad Plenum, which follows after Podgorica and Zagreb, we plan to come out with clear positions and proposals that address other current topics and practical policies for the entire region and individual countries in it, and the focus will be on dealing with the past.

 
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Balsa Bozovic: Government and opposition to talk about sanctions against Russia

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I am inviting the pro-European opposition to use the announced conversations with the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić about calming tensions in society and repeating the elections to initiate the most important issue for Serbia – a clear commitment to the country’s pro-European foreign policy. Vast majority of political players and actors, both the government and majority of the pro-European opposition, has been in a state of hibernation since the beginning of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and remains silent about Russia’s war crimes, crimes against humanity, murders and the danger the aggression poses to the rest of the world. It seems that they are in a state of shock from learning that Moscow, as a recent pillar of Serbian foreign policy, no longer exists in that sense. Serbia’s attitude towards sanctions against Russia will be reciprocal to the European Union’s attitude towards Serbia, and that is why Serbia has to make a decision – whether it is for a European Serbia or for an isolated Serbia. This is the most important issue for the future of our country. You can constantly repeat that you are for the continuation of Serbia’s European path, but if you do not harmonize your foreign and security policy with the foreign policy of the European Union and impose sanctions on Russia, absolutely no one will trust you or consider you a credible partner. Significantly more powerful and richer countries than Serbia had to swallow this bitter pill, Serbia also can and should do it.

 

The past elections in Serbia have shown that the future government has a historic task ahead – to decide what Serbia will be like in the years to come. Will it choose the foreign policy course of the European Union and the European future for our country, or will it continue to delude itself that it can sit on “two chairs” at the same time, not realizing that circumstances have changed and that Russia is no longer what it used to be in international relations? If Serbia does not realize that the Russian foreign policy “chair” does not exist anymore, it can easily lose the European one as well. That would mean isolation and transformation into Balkan Belarus which will be a constant source of destabilization in the region, accompanied by a very low standard of living. The citizens of Serbia do not deserve such a future. Serbia deserves to continue to develop into a democratic, economically strong and modern European state.

 

The citizens of Serbia expect certainty from the Government, which, regardless of the number of deputies in the Assembly who support it, should make a historic decision to impose sanctions on Russia, harmonize its foreign and security policy with the European Union and continue the accelerated path to full membership in the European Union. Such a decision should be supported by the part of the opposition that calls themselves pro-European, because for Serbia it means the continuation of reforms and further strengthening of the rule of law and independent institutions. It is not a collaboration of the pro-European opposition with the regime, it is a responsible, joint decision on the foreign policy of Serbia, but also the value orientation that the citizens expect.

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NGO Network Calls Citizens to Take Part in the Democratic Election Process

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The NGO Network for Democracy, Development and Security calls on the citizens of Serbia to exercise their right to vote, to go out to the polls on 3 April and to vote freely, according to their own beliefs and free from coercion.

The right to vote is one of the most powerful tools of the citizens, and the more people who partake in the elections, the more credible and democratic the voting process becomes.

We expect all institutions included in the election process to perform their duties in accordance to the law and to utilise all of their powers to ensure standard, fair and democratic voting take place and to adhere to the expressed will of the citizens.

We call upon all governing authorities to ensure the application of the law, to react in cases of breach, without exception, thus contributing to the legality of the election process. At the same time, we call upon all members of the polling stations to monitor voting in line with the law, to react to any and all irregularities or breaches of the right to vote and to record any complaints into the Polling Station Records, as polling stations are where the will of the citizens will is being collected.

We remain dedicated in our quest to ensure the further development of a democratic society and democratic representative institutions.

The NGO Network for Democracy, Development and Security

Council for Strategy Policy

Center of Modern Skills

Center for Foreign Policy

Academy for Democratic Development

Center for Democracy Foundation

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Bozovic: Putin’s influence in the Balkans calls the EU to action

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Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina defied Western unity on sanctions against Russia —reflecting Moscow’s destabilising influence in the Balkans

In the series of the meetings with world leaders before the invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin insisted that Russia is endangered and has a right to ‘intervention’ to solve disputes between the West and Russia. Led by the nationalist narrative of the ‘Russian world’ – that all Russians have the right to live in one country – he claimed that Ukrainians are not a nation but in fact Russians. Ukraine is not a state, he went on, but Lenin’s project, and it ought to be incorporated into Russia. Putin’s rhetoric bears a striking resemblance to the narrative Slobodan Milošević employed to start the war in Yugoslavia in 1991 – and to today’s narrative of a ‘Serbian world’ directed towards Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Now, weeks after the invasion started, Putin and Russia are in the most difficult situation since the end of the Cold War. The Russian economy is suffering from unprecedented sanctions, and Putin may be charged for war crimes. Some would say he resembles Milošević – only with nuclear bombs.

In response to Putin’s aggression, the West has become more united than ever before. It has isolated Russia financially, and the EU is closer than ever before to award Ukraine candidate status. Putin’s increasingly desperate moves – making nuclear threats to everyone who dares to aid Ukraine, for instance – led to even his closest autocratic allies, such as Viktor Orbán, turn their backs at him. However, there are a few black sheep in Europe that defied the unified Western response: Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina refused to introduce sanctions on Russia. In Bosnia, it failed because of the blockade of the Serbian and pro-Russian member of Presidency, Milorad Dodik.

The Western Balkans are Europe’s weak spot

In this context, we can see ever more clearly how certain regimes in the Western Balkans played a role in paving the way for a wider conflict between Russia and the West, including the destruction of the well-funded Western security architecture in the Western Balkans. Moscow had worked towards the destabilisation of Europe and NATO for a long time, and primarily through two channels in the Western Balkans – politics and security.

The political channel operated in two ways. First, Putin tried to stall European integration of the countries of the Western Balkans. Second, he attempted to undermine NATO enlargement through the destabilisation of Montenegro and North Macedonia. In 2016, an attempted coup d’état and assassination of President Milo Djukanovic was supported by Putin’s regime, as well as the Russian and Serbian Orthodox Church. In 2017, Russian intelligence supported the storming of parliament and attack on then opposition leader Zoran Zaev in North Macedonia.

From a security perspective, Moscow provided support to the project of changing borders in the Western Balkans through creation of three greater states: Serbia – the project of a Serbian world mirroring the Russian world –, Albania, and Croatia that would absorb little states and nations such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. In last consequence, this would lead to a new war in the Balkans. 

Now, Putin’s last trump card in Europe would be provoking a new conflict through his proxies in an attempt to divert NATO’s and EU’s attention to the Western Balkans.

Europe’s opportunity to counteract

However, despite their weakness, Western Balkan states are more or less successfully resisting Russian hybrid aggression. The biggest challenge is regime in Serbia which is highly integrated into Russian and Chinese zone of influence. Formally, Serbia is ‘militarily neutral’, but it needs help to exit the grip of the Russian influence.

The EU now has an opportunity to become more resolute in its foreign and security policy. Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova have applied for EU membership. This has evidently raised expectations elsewhere. This is why the EU should first finish its job in the Western Balkans and continue the integration of countries that are already negotiating. Montenegro, as a NATO member state that opened all negotiating chapters, could relatively quickly become part of the EU. This would come at an unsignificant cost for the EU considering its small number of inhabitants and its adaptable economy. More importantly, it would send a strong message to the Western Balkans and the democratic world – that EU does not give up on the vision of its founders.

Albania and North Macedonia, also NATO member states, could finally get long-expected dates for the start of negotiations. Bosnia and Herzegovina needs the EU’s and NATO’s attention because of its security issues, since there is still ongoing debate about the electoral legislation and organisation of the country which needs to be established on civic, and not ethnic, principles. Kosovo is likely to become a NATO member state, which would accelerate the comprehensive agreement with Serbia and remove the illusion about Kosovo joining greater Albania.

The international circumstances have changed – the Western world shows more unity and solidarity today than just a few days ago. This momentum should be used for a more agile EU policy in the Western Balkans – without forgetting that the ultimate priority is to stop the war in Ukraine.

Published in: International Politics and Society onMarch 16, 2022

https://www.ips-journal.eu/

Balsa

Bozovic: It is crucial for Serbia to align with EU regarding Ukraine

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The Chair of the Executive Committee of Regional Academy for Democratic Development, Balsa Bozovic, said that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and Russia’s latest moves, as well as the reaction of the European Union and Western democracies, put Serbia in front of the choice of whether to harmonize its foreign policy with EU, or to again pretend to be neutral under various naive excuses and thus show again and again that it is not a reliable partner of the European Union.

He said that the eyes of Western democracies are currently focused on Serbia and that in such crisis and situations it can be seen which countries are credible and reliable partners and can be counted on, and which are building a policy of distrust towards EU as their largest economic and political partner due to the wrong policy.

Bozovic concluded that this choice should not be made upon whether someone loves Russia or not, and that emotions towards Russia should not be questioned. However, he reminded that Serbia must be aware that it has its own policy and priorities, while Russia has its own and that things in that sense should be clean. If Serbia loves itself, it will do what is in its interest in foreign policy, and that is to support its partners in the European Union. Bozovic also warned that the countries of the region have already declared themselves about this situation, while Serbia is again late to do so.

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Closing panel of Podgorica Plenum: They are teaching people to hate, although they know that they are wrong

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The final and closing panel of the Podgorica Plenum: “Quo vadis, Balkans?” organized by the Regional Academy for Democratic Development, Center for Civic Education and Friedrich Ebert Foundation hosted Mayor of Sarajevo Benjamina Karic, Mayor of Podgorica Ivan Vukovic, former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic and Johns Hopkins University Professor Daniel Serwer from USA.

Former President of Croatia Stjepan Mesić said that when he was finishing his mandate, it was impossible to think that in 2022 we would discuss ethnic tensions in the region and the rise of nationalism. He stated that ethnic tensions and nationalism not only resisted, but also turned into dominant ideologies and dominant discourse, for which there are several reasons. One of them lies in the fact that the political elites in the newly formed states realized that they would most easily mobilize voters, keep themselves alive, and often unhindered criminal activities, through the production of enemies. He paid tribute to all those who worked and continue to work for reconciliation, respect for all victims and normalization of relations in the region and strongly criticized those who present themselves as defenders of the nation and national identity while manipulating and creating an atmosphere of constant growing fear and teaching the public that everyone who is different should be hated. He cited the shameless abuse of democracy and freedom of public speech as the second cause of today’s situation, warning that democracy must never become anarchy and allow everyone to do whatever they want, just as freedom of expression must include responsibility for every word spoken. President Mesic emphasized that freedom must never be at the expense of someone else’s freedom, that freedom of expression must be guaranteed but we must never abuse it to spread fear and hatred towards the other and the different. He warned of the danger of growing voices advocating the free spread of hatred under the auspices of the fight against the “culture of prohibition”, which in fact are trying to enable themselves to act unhindered and expressed concern that there is no organized force in society which would oppose them. He reminded that hatred was fabricated to make it easier to mobilize people for war and that it just served as a basis for war and that the only wars in which our nations truly clashed were the wars in which Yugoslavia disintegrated. Mesic warned that in our region, nationalism does not mean loving one’s own, but hating others. He believes that our societies urgently need a fundamental and radical reform, re-establishing the order of social values, redefining the values ​​and rules on which societies are based, correcting completely wrong values, a turn in social development that can almost be called a revolution. President Mesic said that he believes that, if this does not happen, we will face a radical right-wing counter-revolution whose devastating consequences we cannot even imagine.

 

The Mayor of Podgorica, Ivan Vukovic, said that there are new generations in the region whose worldview is significantly more conservative, who were educated and brought up in the spirit of emphasized religiosity, whose perspective is, paradoxically, narrower than those of those who grew up in a country that could not be considered democratic. He added that we are in a situation where the European perspective is increasingly uncertain, the economic situation is increasingly difficult, and global priorities are moving further and further away from the Balkans, and that it is extremely suitable ground for strengthening retrograde ideas. He said that there is a line on the political scene that separates those who believe that diversity is a treasure and that we are all equal, and those who believe that through multiculturalism we separate ourselves from our identity, our roots and annul what we are and that that is the essence of the political struggle that is being waged today in all post-Yugoslav societies. Vukovic assessed that a minimum of social consensus is necessary for the construction of a new system of values, which, in turn, it is necessary to set an example in which political elites must play a key role. He concluded by saying that in Montenegro some things must remain outside the domain of daily politics because that is the only way to preserve social forces that must work in favor of preserving those ideas, regardless of who is in power at the moment. 

The Mayor of Sarajevo, Benjamina Karić, emphasized that she was concerned that the values ​​instilled in many of us in our families, such as anti-fascism, would not be possible to pass on to young people and that they would not adopt them. She said that those topics are important in all times and are not just World War II-related topics. She assessed that we are wrong when we talk about the return of the ideas of social democracy and anti-fascism, and that we should talk about their intensification or empowerment, rather than disappearance, since these are universal ideas that have nothing to do with religion, nation or political conflicts. She emphasized that civil society should be a corrective and a partner in everything that politicians do. 

Daniel Serwer, one of the most prominent international experts on the situation in the Balkans, said that many people in the Western Balkans are saying that they are disappointed with the situation over the past twenty years and that not much has changed since the war. He assessed that the situation in the Balkans is extremely difficult, that all countries in the Balkans are economically dependent on aid from the European Union, which, in turn, is facing other crises and has other priorities, which has slowed down the process of European integration. At the same time, Moscow and Beijing are increasingly present in the region, each in its own way and with its own goals, just like Turkey, without any of these powers sharing the values ​​of the liberal democracy system on which the European Union and the United States are based. He stated that the ethnic populism that is flourishing in the Balkans is a fertile ground for the actions of Russia, China and Turkey, and that one of the ways to oppose these influences in  Western Balkans is empowering progressive politicians who must act in cooperation with civil society. Speaking about the situation in Montenegro, Professor Serwer praised the peaceful change of government in this country and said that it is necessary to closely monitor how Montenegro will emerge from the current crisis.

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